Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 9.4 in
- RP forecast
- 9.3 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 3.84 | 1.22 | 26.7% | 8.3% | 40.7% |
| RP | 3.38 | 1.18 | 28.8% | 8.6% | 42.7% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.4 in | 9.3 in | 9.4 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.6 in | 15.6 in | 15.6 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 98.0 mph | 98.6 mph | 98.0 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 3.3 in | 3.5 in | 3.3 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 12.9 in | 13.0 in | 12.9 in |
| Stuff+ | 107 | 103 | 104 | 103 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | 104 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | 104 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 100 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | 104 |
| Zone rate | 48.2% | 48.7% | 48.4% | 48.7% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.8% | 30.7% | 31.3% | 30.7% |
| Whiff rate | 32.6% | 29.8% | 31.5% | 29.8% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.2% | 40.7% | 42.7% | 40.7% |
| Hard-hit rate | 37.6% | 40.3% | 37.9% | 40.3% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% |
| Strikeout rate | 29.6% | 26.7% | 28.8% | 26.7% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 40.7% | 41.3% | 40.7% |
| All fastball usage | — | 48.4% | 48.4% | 48.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 42.7% | 43.3% | 42.7% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 11.3% | 10.4% | 11.3% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| First secondary usage | — | 30.5% | 31.7% | 30.5% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 12.4% | 11.6% | 12.4% |