Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 8.1 in
- RP forecast
- 8.0 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.32 | 1.32 | 23.9% | 9.4% | 38.7% |
| RP | 3.86 | 1.28 | 25.9% | 9.7% | 40.8% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.1 in | 8.0 in | 8.1 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 17.5 in | 17.6 in | 17.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.7 mph | 97.2 mph | 96.7 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 3.5 in | 3.6 in | 3.5 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.4 in | 13.6 in | 13.4 in |
| Stuff+ | 102 | 102 | 103 | 102 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | 104 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 101 | 101 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | 104 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Zone rate | 48.0% | 48.7% | 48.4% | 48.7% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.4% | 28.3% | 28.9% | 28.3% |
| Whiff rate | 25.4% | 26.7% | 28.5% | 26.7% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 10.3% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 8.3% |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.3% | 38.7% | 40.8% | 38.7% |
| Hard-hit rate | 39.9% | 41.1% | 38.7% | 41.1% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% |
| Strikeout rate | 23.4% | 23.9% | 25.9% | 23.9% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 30.6% | 31.1% | 30.6% |
| All fastball usage | — | 53.9% | 53.9% | 53.9% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 36.0% | 36.6% | 36.0% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 16.9% | 16.0% | 16.9% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| First secondary usage | — | 19.3% | 20.5% | 19.3% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.8% | 16.0% | 16.8% |