Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 6.7 in
- RP forecast
- 6.6 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.7 in | 6.6 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.0 in | 15.1 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.3 mph | 93.8 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 9.6 in | 9.7 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 14.0 in | 14.2 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 96 | 97 | 98 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 97 | 99 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 54.4% | 51.8% | 51.6% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.1% | 28.2% | 28.8% | — |
| Whiff rate | 24.6% | 22.3% | 24.0% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 14.8% | 9.5% | 8.0% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 14.8% | 27.5% | 29.5% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 37.0% | 39.4% | 37.0% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.4% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 14.7% | 16.1% | 18.2% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 32.1% | 32.6% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 60.1% | 60.1% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 32.7% | 33.3% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 8.1% | 7.2% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.4% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 14.4% | 15.6% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 18.3% | 17.5% | — |