Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 9.9 in
- RP forecast
- 9.9 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.9 in | 9.9 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.0 in | 16.1 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 97.5 mph | 98.1 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.1 in | 15.2 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | — * | — * | — |
| Stuff+ | 112 | 105 | 106 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 107 | 108 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 97 | 97 | — |
| Zone rate | 44.5% | 46.8% | 46.6% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 20.8% | 26.6% | 27.2% | — |
| Whiff rate | 25.1% | 27.9% | 29.7% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.7% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 25.6% | 33.5% | 35.6% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 40.2% | 41.0% | 38.6% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 21.4% | 12.0% | 12.3% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 20.0% | 23.9% | 26.0% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 47.0% | 47.5% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 50.4% | 50.4% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 44.8% | 45.4% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.7% | 1.7% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 40.2% | 41.4% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | — * | — * | — |