Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 8.4 in
- RP · chosen
- 8.3 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 3.67 | 1.22 | 28.2% | 9.6% | 43.0% |
| RP · chosen | 3.22 | 1.19 | 30.3% | 9.9% | 45.1% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.4 in | 8.3 in | 8.3 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.4 in | 15.4 in | 15.4 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 100.1 mph | 100.6 mph | 100.6 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 18.8 in | 18.9 in | 18.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.6 in | 7.7 in | 7.7 in |
| Stuff+ | 113 | 108 | 109 | 109 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 109 | 110 | 110 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 113 | 114 | 114 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | 106 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 95 | 95 | 95 |
| Zone rate | 44.5% | 47.6% | 47.4% | 47.4% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.3% | 31.2% | 31.8% | 31.8% |
| Whiff rate | 30.3% | 29.5% | 31.2% | 31.2% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 2.9% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.6% | 43.0% | 45.1% | 45.1% |
| Hard-hit rate | 27.1% | 36.5% | 34.1% | 34.1% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| Strikeout rate | 29.2% | 28.2% | 30.3% | 30.3% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 27.6% | 28.2% | 28.2% |
| All fastball usage | — | 70.6% | 70.6% | 70.6% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 33.5% | 34.0% | 34.0% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| First secondary usage | — | 21.3% | 22.6% | 22.6% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 21.6% | 20.9% | 20.9% |