Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.0 in
- RP · chosen
- 6.9 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.35 | 1.28 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 36.8% |
| RP · chosen | 3.89 | 1.24 | 24.2% | 8.4% | 38.8% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.0 in | 6.9 in | 6.9 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.6 in | 16.7 in | 16.7 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.5 mph | 95.1 mph | 95.1 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 7.4 in | 7.5 in | 7.5 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 20.1 in | 20.3 in | 20.3 in |
| Stuff+ | 105 | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 100 | 102 | 102 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 102 | 102 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 101 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 105 | 105 | 105 |
| Zone rate | 47.5% | 48.5% | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 33.5% | 30.7% | 31.3% | 31.3% |
| Whiff rate | 29.5% | 27.3% | 29.1% | 29.1% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Ground-ball rate | 36.6% | 36.8% | 38.8% | 38.8% |
| Hard-hit rate | 29.9% | 38.3% | 35.8% | 35.8% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% |
| Strikeout rate | 22.2% | 22.1% | 24.2% | 24.2% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 48.3% | 48.9% | 48.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 32.9% | 32.9% | 32.9% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 27.8% | 28.4% | 28.4% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 20.7% | 19.8% | 19.8% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| First secondary usage | — | 44.6% | 45.8% | 45.8% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 18.2% | 17.4% | 17.4% |