Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 15.7 in
- RP forecast
- 15.6 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.7 in | 15.6 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 10.1 in | 10.2 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.7 mph | 94.2 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.5 in | 16.7 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 18.1 in | 18.2 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 105 | 100 | 101 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 99 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | — |
| Zone rate | 45.2% | 46.8% | 46.6% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 31.9% | 28.3% | 28.9% | — |
| Whiff rate | 28.4% | 24.9% | 26.7% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.9% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 41.2% | 42.3% | 44.3% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 31.4% | 38.0% | 35.6% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.0% | 10.8% | 11.0% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 25.0% | 20.8% | 22.9% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 6.8% | 7.4% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 47.4% | 47.5% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 20.2% | 20.7% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 49.0% | 48.1% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.2% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 44.3% | 45.6% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.2% | 14.5% | — |