Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 3.6 in
- RP forecast
- 3.5 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 3.6 in | 3.5 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 12.3 in | 12.4 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.5 mph | 94.1 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 5.6 in | 5.8 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.2 in | 15.3 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 94 | 97 | 99 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 98 | 100 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 92 | 93 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 99 | 99 | — |
| Zone rate | 45.9% | 47.6% | 47.3% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.4% | 29.6% | 30.2% | — |
| Whiff rate | 29.1% | 25.0% | 26.7% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 10.5% | 8.7% | 7.1% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.0% | 45.5% | 47.5% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 50.0% | 42.3% | 39.9% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.2 pp | -0.2 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.0% | 8.9% | 9.2% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 23.3% | 20.1% | 22.2% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 24.2% | 24.7% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 70.8% | 70.8% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 31.3% | 31.9% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 3.4% | 2.5% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.2% | 1.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 34.5% | 35.8% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 20.1% | 19.3% | — |