Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 9.6 in
- RP · chosen
- 9.5 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.83 | 1.34 | 16.6% | 6.5% | 36.8% |
| RP · chosen | 4.37 | 1.30 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 38.8% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.6 in | 9.5 in | 9.5 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.2 in | 15.3 in | 15.3 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.3 mph | 92.9 mph | 92.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.3 in | 15.4 in | 15.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 5.9 in | 6.0 in | 6.0 in |
| Stuff+ | 83 | 91 | 93 | 93 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 91 | 93 | 93 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | 95 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 88 | 89 | 89 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | 104 |
| Zone rate | 52.4% | 51.6% | 51.3% | 51.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 31.3% | 28.8% | 29.4% | 29.4% |
| Whiff rate | 21.7% | 19.9% | 21.7% | 21.7% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 11.0% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Ground-ball rate | 33.1% | 36.8% | 38.8% | 38.8% |
| Hard-hit rate | 43.1% | 41.1% | 38.7% | 38.7% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.0 pp | 0.0 pp | 0.0 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% |
| Strikeout rate | 18.0% | 16.6% | 18.7% | 18.7% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 30.9% | 31.5% | 31.5% |
| All fastball usage | — | 47.0% | 47.0% | 47.0% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 38.5% | 39.1% | 39.1% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 22.3% | 21.4% | 21.4% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| First secondary usage | — | 20.1% | 21.4% | 21.4% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 21.8% | 21.0% | 21.0% |