Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 3.2 in
- RP forecast
- 3.1 in
Loading projection…
Final projection unavailable. The results-only forecast remains available below.
Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 3.2 in | 3.1 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 13.5 in | 13.5 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.3 mph | 95.9 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 7.0 in | 7.2 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 14.0 in | 14.1 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 97 | 98 | 99 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 93 | 93 | — |
| Zone rate | 49.8% | 49.0% | 48.8% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 22.0% | 26.6% | 27.2% | — |
| Whiff rate | 26.5% | 24.5% | 26.2% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 3.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 53.1% | 46.5% | 48.5% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 28.1% | 38.7% | 36.3% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 14.0% | 9.9% | 10.2% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 28.1% | 22.3% | 24.3% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 29.1% | 29.6% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 66.6% | 66.7% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 31.2% | 31.8% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 4.0% | 3.1% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.2% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 25.5% | 26.7% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 24.8% | 24.1% | — |