Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 15.0 in
- RP forecast
- 15.0 in
Loading projection…
Final projection unavailable. The results-only forecast remains available below.
Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.0 in | 15.0 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 2.1 in | 2.2 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.6 mph | 96.2 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 5.7 in | 5.8 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 12.9 in | 13.0 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 100 | 102 | 103 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 109 | 110 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 52.8% | 50.1% | 49.8% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.0% | 29.9% | 30.5% | — |
| Whiff rate | 10.3% | 18.6% | 20.3% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.0% | 48.4% | 50.4% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 25.0% | 38.7% | 36.3% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.5 pp | -0.5 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 0.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 0.0% | 13.1% | 15.2% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 25.1% | 25.7% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 72.0% | 72.1% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 32.9% | 33.5% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.8% | 1.9% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.4% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 30.3% | 31.5% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 23.1% | 22.4% | — |
2026 MLB arsenal evidence unavailable