Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 11.6 in
- RP forecast
- 11.5 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 11.6 in | 11.5 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 12.2 in | 12.3 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.5 mph | 97.1 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 3.9 in | 4.0 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 11.7 in | 11.9 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 102 | 101 | 102 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 102 | 104 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 98 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 92 | 92 | — |
| Zone rate | 46.9% | 47.9% | 47.7% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 22.9% | 27.2% | 27.8% | — |
| Whiff rate | 25.5% | 25.0% | 26.8% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 33.8% | 40.0% | 42.0% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 29.2% | 38.8% | 36.4% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 16.8% | 10.5% | 10.8% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 20.4% | 21.1% | 23.2% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 27.8% | 28.4% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 67.5% | 67.5% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 26.1% | 26.6% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 3.4% | 2.4% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.9% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 25.0% | 26.2% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 24.4% | 23.7% | — |