Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 8.2 in
- RP forecast
- 8.1 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.2 in | 8.1 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.6 in | 14.7 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.2 mph | 94.8 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 11.4 in | 11.5 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.1 in | 15.2 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 97 | 98 | 99 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 98 | 100 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 97 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 43.8% | 46.8% | 46.6% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 24.4% | 26.8% | 27.4% | — |
| Whiff rate | 30.0% | 25.5% | 27.2% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 11.1% | 8.8% | 7.3% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 33.3% | 36.8% | 38.9% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 22.2% | 38.0% | 35.6% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.7 pp | -0.7 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 27.8% | 12.7% | 13.0% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 22.2% | 20.1% | 22.1% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 20.5% | 21.0% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 67.6% | 67.6% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 43.7% | 44.3% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 11.9% | 10.9% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 12.3% | 13.5% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 14.0% | 13.2% | — |