Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 14.8 in
- RP forecast
- 14.7 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 3.85 | 1.28 | 25.6% | 9.2% | 49.7% |
| RP | 3.39 | 1.24 | 27.7% | 9.5% | 51.7% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 14.8 in | 14.7 in | 14.8 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 11.1 in | 11.1 in | 11.1 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.8 mph | 96.4 mph | 95.8 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 18.2 in | 18.3 in | 18.2 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.9 in | 17.1 in | 16.9 in |
| Stuff+ | 99 | 100 | 102 | 100 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | 105 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | 97 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 101 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 101 | 101 | 101 |
| Zone rate | 45.4% | 46.8% | 46.6% | 46.8% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.5% | 28.7% | 29.3% | 28.7% |
| Whiff rate | 26.7% | 26.7% | 28.4% | 26.7% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.4% |
| Ground-ball rate | 57.1% | 49.7% | 51.7% | 49.7% |
| Hard-hit rate | 36.9% | 38.4% | 36.0% | 38.4% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.2% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.2% |
| Strikeout rate | 27.5% | 25.6% | 27.7% | 25.6% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 27.4% | 27.9% | 27.4% |
| All fastball usage | — | 61.8% | 61.8% | 61.8% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 28.0% | 28.6% | 28.0% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 10.2% | 9.3% | 10.2% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 28.9% | 30.1% | 28.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 18.3% | 17.5% | 18.3% |