Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 16.5 in
- RP forecast
- 16.5 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.19 | 1.35 | 18.4% | 7.6% | 57.9% |
| RP | 3.74 | 1.31 | 20.5% | 7.9% | 59.9% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.5 in | 16.5 in | 16.5 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 1.0 in | 1.1 in | 1.0 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.3 mph | 93.8 mph | 93.3 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 10.9 in | 11.1 in | 10.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.5 in | 13.7 in | 13.5 in |
| Stuff+ | 101 | 100 | 101 | 100 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 102 | 104 | 102 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 100 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 90 | 91 | 90 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 97 | 97 | 97 |
| Zone rate | 48.2% | 49.3% | 49.1% | 49.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.4% | 31.5% | 32.1% | 31.5% |
| Whiff rate | 21.3% | 22.4% | 24.2% | 22.4% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.1% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 7.1% |
| Ground-ball rate | 54.4% | 57.9% | 59.9% | 57.9% |
| Hard-hit rate | 37.8% | 37.7% | 35.2% | 37.7% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.6% |
| Strikeout rate | 18.3% | 18.4% | 20.5% | 18.4% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 31.3% | 31.9% | 31.3% |
| All fastball usage | — | 56.3% | 56.3% | 56.3% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 50.2% | 50.8% | 50.2% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 14.2% | 13.3% | 14.2% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 19.1% | 20.3% | 19.1% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.3% | 14.5% | 15.3% |