Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 10.0 in
- RP forecast
- 9.9 in
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Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 10.0 in | 9.9 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.0 in | 15.0 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.3 mph | 91.9 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 10.7 in | 10.8 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 6.5 in | 6.6 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 94 | 97 | 99 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 39.6% | 45.0% | 44.8% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 13.0% | 23.3% | 23.9% | — |
| Whiff rate | 33.3% | 26.5% | 28.3% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 12.5% | 9.1% | 7.5% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.0% | 42.3% | 44.3% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 12.5% | 33.8% | 31.3% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.7 pp | -0.7 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 23.1% | 11.9% | 12.2% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 15.4% | 17.9% | 19.9% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 29.4% | 29.9% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 53.9% | 53.9% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 31.9% | 32.5% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 7.1% | 6.2% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 9.4% | 9.8% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 16.4% | 17.6% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.9% | 16.2% | — |
2026 MLB arsenal evidence unavailable