Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 13.5 in
- RP forecast
- 13.4 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.61 | 1.45 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 54.3% |
| RP | 4.16 | 1.41 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 56.4% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 13.5 in | 13.4 in | 13.5 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 4.2 in | 4.2 in | 4.2 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.6 mph | 96.2 mph | 95.6 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 10.4 in | 10.6 in | 10.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.3 in | 15.4 in | 15.3 in |
| Stuff+ | 99 | 100 | 102 | 100 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 103 | 105 | 103 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | 100 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | 96 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | 96 |
| Zone rate | 46.9% | 48.6% | 48.4% | 48.6% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 25.6% | 27.7% | 28.3% | 27.7% |
| Whiff rate | 23.6% | 23.0% | 24.8% | 23.0% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% |
| Ground-ball rate | 57.2% | 54.3% | 56.4% | 54.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 42.8% | 43.2% | 40.7% | 43.2% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.2% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.4% |
| Strikeout rate | 15.9% | 17.6% | 19.7% | 17.6% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 19.1% | 19.6% | 19.1% |
| All fastball usage | — | 61.1% | 61.1% | 61.1% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 37.3% | 37.9% | 37.3% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 21.0% | 20.1% | 21.0% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| First secondary usage | — | 18.7% | 19.9% | 18.7% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 21.2% | 20.4% | 21.2% |