Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 2.9 in
- RP · chosen
- 2.8 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.78 | 1.40 | 19.9% | 9.7% | 38.4% |
| RP · chosen | 4.32 | 1.36 | 22.0% | 10.0% | 40.4% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 2.9 in | 2.8 in | 2.8 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.5 in | 15.5 in | 15.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.7 mph | 95.3 mph | 95.3 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 4.6 in | 4.8 in | 4.8 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.8 in | 16.0 in | 16.0 in |
| Stuff+ | 92 | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 95 | 97 | 97 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 100 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | 104 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Zone rate | 43.8% | 47.0% | 46.8% | 46.8% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 26.7% | 27.5% | 28.1% | 28.1% |
| Whiff rate | 22.5% | 22.5% | 24.3% | 24.3% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 34.0% | 38.4% | 40.4% | 40.4% |
| Hard-hit rate | 40.1% | 40.9% | 38.5% | 38.5% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.7 pp | 0.7 pp | 0.7 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 13.0% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Strikeout rate | 22.2% | 19.9% | 22.0% | 22.0% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 40.7% | 41.3% | 41.3% |
| All fastball usage | — | 50.1% | 50.1% | 50.1% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 43.4% | 44.0% | 44.0% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| First secondary usage | — | 14.6% | 15.8% | 15.8% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.0% | 15.2% | 15.2% |