Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.8 in
- RP · chosen
- 7.7 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 3.63 | 1.21 | 27.2% | 8.3% | 47.1% |
| RP · chosen | 3.17 | 1.17 | 29.3% | 8.6% | 49.1% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.8 in | 7.7 in | 7.7 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.1 in | 16.2 in | 16.2 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 97.9 mph | 98.5 mph | 98.5 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 9.0 in | 9.2 in | 9.2 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 12.1 in | 12.2 in | 12.2 in |
| Stuff+ | 120 | 106 | 107 | 107 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 108 | 109 | 109 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 106 | 106 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | 105 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 107 | 107 | 107 |
| Zone rate | 46.6% | 49.1% | 48.9% | 48.9% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 36.6% | 31.2% | 31.8% | 31.8% |
| Whiff rate | 29.3% | 28.0% | 29.8% | 29.8% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 3.7% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% |
| Ground-ball rate | 55.6% | 47.1% | 49.1% | 49.1% |
| Hard-hit rate | 36.9% | 41.3% | 38.9% | 38.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.0 pp | 0.0 pp | 0.0 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| Strikeout rate | 31.6% | 27.2% | 29.3% | 29.3% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 39.4% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| All fastball usage | — | 45.3% | 45.4% | 45.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 38.6% | 39.2% | 39.2% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 17.2% | 16.3% | 16.3% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| First secondary usage | — | 28.0% | 29.2% | 29.2% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.0% | 16.2% | 16.2% |