Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 15.0 in
- RP forecast
- 14.9 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.32 | 1.35 | 22.0% | 9.2% | 47.5% |
| RP | 3.86 | 1.31 | 24.1% | 9.4% | 49.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.0 in | 14.9 in | 15.0 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 5.8 in | 5.9 in | 5.8 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.9 mph | 96.5 mph | 95.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.3 in | 14.4 in | 14.3 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 8.5 in | 8.7 in | 8.5 in |
| Stuff+ | 98 | 100 | 101 | 100 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 102 | 104 | 102 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 96 | 96 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | 99 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 102 | 102 | 102 |
| Zone rate | 48.5% | 49.2% | 48.9% | 49.2% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 25.4% | 28.9% | 29.5% | 28.9% |
| Whiff rate | 25.0% | 23.1% | 24.8% | 23.1% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 8.0% |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.2% | 47.5% | 49.5% | 47.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 42.7% | 40.9% | 38.5% | 40.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.3% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% |
| Strikeout rate | 24.1% | 22.0% | 24.1% | 22.0% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 23.9% | 24.5% | 23.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 65.3% | 65.3% | 65.3% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 25.2% | 25.8% | 25.2% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.7% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% |
| First secondary usage | — | 21.2% | 22.5% | 21.2% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 19.3% | 18.5% | 19.3% |