Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 9.6 in
- RP forecast
- 9.5 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 9.6 in | 9.5 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.6 in | 16.6 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 98.1 mph | 98.6 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 8.0 in | 8.1 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 8.3 in | 8.4 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 110 | 104 | 105 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 107 | 109 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 98 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 95 | 95 | — |
| Zone rate | 51.5% | 49.9% | 49.6% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 22.9% | 26.9% | 27.5% | — |
| Whiff rate | 16.4% | 24.0% | 25.8% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 11.1% | 8.8% | 7.3% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 26.7% | 33.7% | 35.7% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 39.5% | 43.4% | 41.0% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 14.9% | 10.4% | 10.7% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 17.9% | 22.5% | 24.6% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 22.9% | 23.5% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 73.7% | 73.7% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 51.5% | 52.1% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.6% | 1.7% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.7% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 19.1% | 20.3% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 11.8% | 11.0% | — |