Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 2.8 in
- RP forecast
- 2.8 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 2.8 in | 2.8 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.4 in | 16.4 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.4 mph | 96.0 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 3.9 in | 4.1 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | — * | — * | — |
| Stuff+ | 102 | 101 | 102 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | — |
| Zone rate | 45.0% | 47.2% | 47.0% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 36.1% | 30.4% | 31.0% | — |
| Whiff rate | 24.0% | 24.5% | 26.2% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.9% | 42.7% | 44.7% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 26.5% | 37.4% | 35.0% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.8% | 9.5% | 9.7% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 14.7% | 19.2% | 21.3% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 36.4% | 37.0% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 56.7% | 56.7% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 49.8% | 50.4% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 6.7% | 5.8% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.2% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 31.4% | 32.6% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | — * | — * | — |