Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 17.5 in
- RP · chosen
- 17.4 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.34 | 1.33 | 17.6% | 6.3% | 53.9% |
| RP · chosen | 3.88 | 1.29 | 19.6% | 6.5% | 55.9% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 17.5 in | 17.4 in | 17.4 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | -4.2 in | -4.2 in | -4.2 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 90.5 mph | 91.1 mph | 91.1 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.2 in | 14.4 in | 14.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.8 in | 15.9 in | 15.9 in |
| Stuff+ | 93 | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 101 | 101 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 90 | 91 | 91 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 104 | 104 | 104 |
| Zone rate | 48.9% | 50.2% | 49.9% | 49.9% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.5% | 29.0% | 29.6% | 29.6% |
| Whiff rate | 23.9% | 20.0% | 21.7% | 21.7% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% |
| Ground-ball rate | 57.9% | 53.9% | 55.9% | 55.9% |
| Hard-hit rate | 44.6% | 43.7% | 41.2% | 41.2% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.6 pp | 0.6 pp | 0.6 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 3.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Strikeout rate | 22.5% | 17.6% | 19.6% | 19.6% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 11.9% | 12.4% | 12.4% |
| All fastball usage | — | 65.5% | 65.5% | 65.5% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 51.0% | 51.6% | 51.6% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 24.2% | 23.3% | 23.3% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 18.6% | 19.9% | 19.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.8% |