Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 8.2 in
- RP · chosen
- 8.1 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 3.89 | 1.22 | 27.1% | 8.8% | 36.3% |
| RP · chosen | 3.43 | 1.18 | 29.2% | 9.1% | 38.3% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.2 in | 8.1 in | 8.1 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 17.3 in | 17.3 in | 17.3 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.4 mph | 94.0 mph | 94.0 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 5.3 in | 5.4 in | 5.4 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 10.6 in | 10.7 in | 10.7 in |
| Stuff+ | 105 | 102 | 103 | 103 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | 102 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | 104 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | 103 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 110 | 110 | 110 |
| Zone rate | 47.5% | 48.4% | 48.2% | 48.2% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 33.8% | 31.9% | 32.5% | 32.5% |
| Whiff rate | 31.8% | 29.2% | 31.0% | 31.0% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 4.5% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.3% | 36.3% | 38.3% | 38.3% |
| Hard-hit rate | 37.3% | 40.7% | 38.2% | 38.2% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Strikeout rate | 30.1% | 27.1% | 29.2% | 29.2% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 31.3% | 31.9% | 31.9% |
| All fastball usage | — | 55.4% | 55.5% | 55.5% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 42.9% | 43.4% | 43.4% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 13.8% | 12.9% | 12.9% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| First secondary usage | — | 28.7% | 29.9% | 29.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 13.7% | 13.0% | 13.0% |