Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 15.7 in
- RP forecast
- 15.6 in
Loading projection…
Final projection unavailable. The results-only forecast remains available below.
Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 15.7 in | 15.6 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 11.4 in | 11.4 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.8 mph | 95.4 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.0 in | 16.1 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 19.2 in | 19.4 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 106 | 99 | 100 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 102 | 104 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 99 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 44.7% | 47.1% | 46.9% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.0% | 28.6% | 29.2% | — |
| Whiff rate | 34.1% | 27.7% | 29.4% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 3.3% | 7.2% | 5.7% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 30.0% | 38.3% | 40.3% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 23.3% | 37.5% | 35.1% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.9% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 28.0% | 22.9% | 25.0% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 24.7% | 25.2% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 69.0% | 69.1% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 43.3% | 43.9% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 5.3% | 4.4% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 20.6% | 21.8% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.0% | 14.2% | — |