Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 8.5 in
- RP forecast
- 8.4 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.08 | 1.27 | 23.5% | 8.2% | 43.4% |
| RP | 3.62 | 1.23 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 45.4% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.5 in | 8.4 in | 8.5 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.2 in | 15.2 in | 15.2 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.4 mph | 96.0 mph | 95.4 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 3.9 in | 4.0 in | 3.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 14.3 in | 14.4 in | 14.3 in |
| Stuff+ | 103 | 101 | 102 | 101 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 98 | 100 | 98 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | 104 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| Zone rate | 49.0% | 48.6% | 48.4% | 48.6% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.4% | 29.5% | 30.1% | 29.5% |
| Whiff rate | 23.7% | 24.9% | 26.7% | 24.9% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.4% | 43.4% | 45.4% | 43.4% |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.1% | 39.5% | 37.1% | 39.5% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.2% |
| Strikeout rate | 24.1% | 23.5% | 25.5% | 23.5% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 43.0% | 43.6% | 43.0% |
| All fastball usage | — | 45.5% | 45.5% | 45.5% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 27.1% | 27.7% | 27.1% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 10.7% | 9.8% | 10.7% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 27.2% | 28.4% | 27.2% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.7% | 16.9% | 17.7% |