Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 8.4 in
- RP forecast
- 8.3 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.4 in | 8.3 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.0 in | 16.0 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.1 mph | 93.7 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 9.3 in | 9.4 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 8.1 in | 8.2 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 89 | 94 | 96 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 93 | 94 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 89 | 89 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 98 | 98 | — |
| Zone rate | 44.9% | 46.9% | 46.7% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.2% | 27.5% | 28.1% | — |
| Whiff rate | 18.7% | 20.8% | 22.5% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.7% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 34.6% | 37.5% | 39.5% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 39.3% | 40.4% | 38.0% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 20.9% | 19.0% | 21.1% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 12.7% | 13.2% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 71.5% | 71.5% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 30.3% | 30.9% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 15.7% | 14.8% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 35.6% | 36.8% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.8% | 15.0% | — |