Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 11.6 in
- RP forecast
- 11.5 in
Loading projection…
Final projection unavailable. The results-only forecast remains available below.
Final role scenarios and park context unavailable
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 11.6 in | 11.5 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 6.7 in | 6.8 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.9 mph | 92.5 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 7.6 in | 7.7 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.9 in | 14.0 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 92 | 96 | 97 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 92 | 94 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 91 | 92 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 100 | 100 | — |
| Zone rate | 44.0% | 46.7% | 46.5% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.7% | 28.7% | 29.3% | — |
| Whiff rate | 20.0% | 20.9% | 22.6% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 2.4% | 6.9% | 5.4% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.3% | 45.6% | 47.6% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.5% | 41.9% | 39.5% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 1.5 pp | 1.5 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 16.1% | 9.7% | 10.0% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 10.7% | 14.4% | 16.5% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 37.9% | 38.4% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 55.5% | 55.5% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 15.8% | 16.4% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 7.7% | 6.8% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.4% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 34.5% | 35.7% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.5% | 16.7% | — |