Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.0 in
- RP · chosen
- 3.9 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.36 | 1.31 | 20.1% | 7.7% | 44.0% |
| RP · chosen | 3.91 | 1.27 | 22.2% | 8.0% | 46.0% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.0 in | 3.9 in | 3.9 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 13.5 in | 13.6 in | 13.6 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 91.3 mph | 91.9 mph | 91.9 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 13.8 in | 13.9 in | 13.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.7 in | 13.8 in | 13.8 in |
| Stuff+ | 101 | 100 | 102 | 102 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 96 | 98 | 98 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | 107 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | 106 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 105 | 105 | 105 |
| Zone rate | 50.0% | 50.8% | 50.6% | 50.6% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 30.8% | 28.3% | 28.9% | 28.9% |
| Whiff rate | 18.3% | 20.7% | 22.5% | 22.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.1% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% |
| Ground-ball rate | 50.0% | 44.0% | 46.0% | 46.0% |
| Hard-hit rate | 35.9% | 37.8% | 35.4% | 35.4% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.8 pp | 0.8 pp | 0.8 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| Strikeout rate | 18.4% | 20.1% | 22.2% | 22.2% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 29.2% | 29.7% | 29.7% |
| All fastball usage | — | 67.6% | 67.6% | 67.6% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 50.1% | 50.6% | 50.6% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| First secondary usage | — | 25.6% | 26.8% | 26.8% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.5% | 15.8% | 15.8% |