Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.4 in
- RP forecast
- 4.3 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.4 in | 4.3 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.9 in | 16.9 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.7 mph | 95.3 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 4.2 in | 4.4 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.0 in | 15.2 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 103 | 102 | 103 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 96 | 98 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 108 | 109 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 101 | 101 | — |
| Zone rate | 50.9% | 49.4% | 49.2% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.8% | 28.8% | 29.4% | — |
| Whiff rate | 16.4% | 21.7% | 23.5% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 3.1% | 7.1% | 5.6% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 53.6% | 44.7% | 46.7% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.2% | 39.9% | 37.5% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.9% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 17.4% | 20.5% | 22.6% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 34.1% | 34.6% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 60.6% | 60.6% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 38.4% | 39.0% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 4.5% | 3.6% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 29.3% | 30.5% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 20.5% | 19.8% | — |