Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.8 in
- RP forecast
- 16.7 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.8 in | 16.7 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 1.9 in | 2.0 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.5 mph | 96.1 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 10.9 in | 11.0 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 3.8 in | 4.0 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 101 | 101 | 103 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 104 | 106 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 99 | 99 | — |
| Zone rate | 50.4% | 49.3% | 49.0% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 25.0% | 28.0% | 28.6% | — |
| Whiff rate | 17.3% | 19.8% | 21.5% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 58.8% | 52.9% | 54.9% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 43.4% | 43.2% | 40.8% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 1.3 pp | 1.3 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.6% | 10.0% | 10.3% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 15.3% | 16.9% | 19.0% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 8.8% | 9.4% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 88.0% | 88.0% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 45.3% | 45.9% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.5% | 1.6% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.4% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 22.0% | 23.3% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 19.9% | 19.1% | — |