Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 3.0 in
- RP forecast
- 2.9 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 3.0 in | 2.9 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.9 in | 16.9 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 89.8 mph | 90.4 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 6.1 in | 6.2 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 12.1 in | 12.2 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 86 | 92 | 94 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 85 | 87 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 54.5% | 50.8% | 50.6% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.5% | 27.7% | 28.3% | — |
| Whiff rate | 33.3% | 25.6% | 27.4% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.1% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 44.4% | 39.8% | 41.8% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 50.0% | 42.5% | 40.1% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.5% | 9.3% | 9.6% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 19.2% | 17.7% | 19.8% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 36.3% | 36.9% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 45.4% | 45.4% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 37.7% | 38.2% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 18.3% | 17.4% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 21.5% | 22.7% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.9% | 17.2% | — |