Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.4 in
- RP · chosen
- 7.3 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.98 | 1.43 | 16.3% | 8.7% | 40.2% |
| RP · chosen | 4.52 | 1.39 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 42.2% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.4 in | 7.3 in | 7.3 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 14.7 in | 14.7 in | 14.7 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.1 mph | 94.6 mph | 94.6 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 9.2 in | 9.3 in | 9.3 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 13.3 in | 13.4 in | 13.4 in |
| Stuff+ | 93 | 96 | 98 | 98 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 94 | 96 | 96 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 99 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | 98 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| Zone rate | 45.6% | 47.0% | 46.8% | 46.8% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.0% | 28.7% | 29.3% | 29.3% |
| Whiff rate | 21.1% | 22.6% | 24.3% | 24.3% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% |
| Ground-ball rate | 38.5% | 40.2% | 42.2% | 42.2% |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.4% | 41.6% | 39.2% | 39.2% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp | -0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.9% |
| Strikeout rate | 14.2% | 16.3% | 18.4% | 18.4% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 28.0% | 28.5% | 28.5% |
| All fastball usage | — | 58.5% | 58.5% | 58.5% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 22.5% | 23.1% | 23.1% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 12.9% | 12.0% | 12.0% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| First secondary usage | — | 21.7% | 23.0% | 23.0% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.7% | 17.0% | 17.0% |