Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 11.6 in
- RP forecast
- 11.5 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 11.6 in | 11.5 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.0 in | 16.1 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.8 mph | 95.4 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.5 in | 16.7 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 6.4 in | 6.5 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 92 | 96 | 98 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 96 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 103 | 103 | — |
| Zone rate | 46.4% | 47.8% | 47.5% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 21.5% | 26.3% | 26.9% | — |
| Whiff rate | 28.4% | 25.1% | 26.9% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 35.7% | 38.7% | 40.7% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 42.9% | 41.6% | 39.2% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 16.5% | 10.3% | 10.6% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 22.7% | 20.5% | 22.6% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 41.3% | 41.8% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 52.8% | 52.9% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 44.6% | 45.2% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 4.5% | 3.6% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 21.3% | 22.5% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 21.6% | 20.8% | — |