Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.8 in
- RP forecast
- 4.8 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.8 in | 4.8 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 18.8 in | 18.9 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.2 mph | 93.8 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.8 in | 14.9 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 5.8 in | 6.0 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 88 | 93 | 95 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 96 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 51.9% | 50.3% | 50.1% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 26.7% | 26.4% | 27.0% | — |
| Whiff rate | 20.9% | 20.7% | 22.5% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 12.8% | 9.1% | 7.6% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 28.2% | 31.4% | 33.4% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 43.6% | 43.5% | 41.1% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 4.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 16.0% | 17.2% | 19.3% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 31.6% | 32.2% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 45.7% | 45.7% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 39.3% | 39.9% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 24.2% | 23.3% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 21.1% | 22.4% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.9% | 16.1% | — |