Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 3.6 in
- RP · chosen
- 3.6 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.18 | 1.28 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 40.9% |
| RP · chosen | 3.72 | 1.25 | 25.6% | 9.2% | 42.9% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 3.6 in | 3.6 in | 3.6 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 11.4 in | 11.4 in | 11.4 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 90.5 mph | 91.1 mph | 91.1 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.8 in | 14.9 in | 14.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 12.8 in | 12.9 in | 12.9 in |
| Stuff+ | 111 | 106 | 107 | 107 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 102 | 104 | 104 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 113 | 114 | 114 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 105 | 105 | 105 |
| Zone rate | 45.7% | 47.3% | 47.1% | 47.1% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.5% | 30.2% | 30.8% | 30.8% |
| Whiff rate | 28.7% | 27.2% | 29.0% | 29.0% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% |
| Ground-ball rate | 36.7% | 40.9% | 42.9% | 42.9% |
| Hard-hit rate | 32.0% | 35.4% | 32.9% | 32.9% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.7% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.2% |
| Strikeout rate | 24.7% | 23.5% | 25.6% | 25.6% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 38.2% | 38.8% | 38.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 51.1% | 51.1% | 51.1% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 46.3% | 46.8% | 46.8% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 10.8% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 35.0% | 36.3% | 36.3% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 11.6% | 10.9% | 10.9% |