Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 8.6 in
- RP forecast
- 8.6 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 8.6 in | 8.6 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 17.0 in | 17.1 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.2 mph | 93.8 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 6.1 in | 6.2 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | — * | — * | — |
| Stuff+ | 103 | 99 | 100 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 101 | 102 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 81 | 81 | — |
| Zone rate | 45.3% | 48.8% | 48.6% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 34.9% | 29.7% | 30.3% | — |
| Whiff rate | 29.5% | 25.7% | 27.5% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.8% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 27.4% | 36.9% | 39.0% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 37.1% | 40.2% | 37.8% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 27.3% | 22.6% | 24.7% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 9.5% | 10.0% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 86.0% | 86.0% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 48.4% | 49.0% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 3.3% | 2.4% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.6% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 32.8% | 34.1% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | — * | — * | — |