Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 4.9 in
- RP · chosen
- 4.8 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 4.17 | 1.29 | 23.9% | 8.9% | 41.7% |
| RP · chosen | 3.71 | 1.25 | 25.9% | 9.2% | 43.7% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 4.9 in | 4.8 in | 4.8 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.5 in | 16.5 in | 16.5 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.5 mph | 96.0 mph | 96.0 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 14.8 in | 14.9 in | 14.9 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 7.1 in | 7.2 in | 7.2 in |
| Stuff+ | 108 | 102 | 104 | 104 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 104 | 106 | 106 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | 107 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 99 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 98 | 98 | 98 |
| Zone rate | 41.3% | 45.8% | 45.6% | 45.6% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 36.3% | 30.8% | 31.4% | 31.4% |
| Whiff rate | 32.6% | 28.3% | 30.0% | 30.0% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Ground-ball rate | 42.1% | 41.7% | 43.7% | 43.7% |
| Hard-hit rate | 40.9% | 39.9% | 37.5% | 37.5% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.2% |
| Strikeout rate | 25.9% | 23.9% | 25.9% | 25.9% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 30.8% | 31.3% | 31.3% |
| All fastball usage | — | 49.0% | 49.0% | 49.0% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 29.3% | 29.9% | 29.9% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 20.7% | 19.8% | 19.8% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| First secondary usage | — | 26.6% | 27.8% | 27.8% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 20.7% | 19.9% | 19.9% |