Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 13.5 in
- RP forecast
- 13.4 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 13.5 in | 13.4 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 13.9 in | 14.0 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.1 mph | 92.7 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 3.0 in | 3.2 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 14.6 in | 14.8 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 93 | 95 | 96 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 94 | 96 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 96 | 97 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 97 | 98 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 100 | 100 | — |
| Zone rate | 49.7% | 50.7% | 50.5% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.5% | 28.9% | 29.5% | — |
| Whiff rate | 20.3% | 20.9% | 22.6% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.0% | 40.3% | 42.3% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 50.0% | 42.2% | 39.8% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.6 pp | 0.6 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.3% | 7.7% | 8.0% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 23.1% | 19.9% | 22.0% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 5.1% | 5.6% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 77.9% | 77.9% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 58.3% | 58.9% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 16.5% | 15.6% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.2% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 15.0% | 16.2% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.6% | 15.9% | — |