Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 6.1 in
- RP forecast
- 6.0 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.1 in | 6.0 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 15.8 in | 15.9 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.2 mph | 96.8 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 9.2 in | 9.4 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 8.4 in | 8.5 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 95 | 98 | 99 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 99 | 101 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 94 | 95 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | — |
| Zone rate | 47.0% | 47.9% | 47.7% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 29.9% | 28.8% | 29.4% | — |
| Whiff rate | 24.5% | 24.6% | 26.3% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.6% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 46.0% | 43.7% | 45.7% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 34.5% | 39.5% | 37.1% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 23.9% | 22.1% | 24.2% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 34.5% | 35.0% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 57.5% | 57.5% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 29.8% | 30.4% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 7.6% | 6.7% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.4% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 20.8% | 22.0% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.6% | 16.8% | — |