Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 6.5 in
- RP forecast
- 6.4 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 6.5 in | 6.4 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 17.8 in | 17.8 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 96.6 mph | 97.1 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 4.2 in | 4.3 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.6 in | 15.8 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 107 | 104 | 105 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 105 | 107 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 108 | 109 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 40.2% | 45.4% | 45.2% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.6% | 28.3% | 28.9% | — |
| Whiff rate | 31.3% | 28.9% | 30.7% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.4% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 33.3% | 38.8% | 40.8% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.7% | 39.0% | 36.6% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 1.6 pp | 1.6 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 14.3% | 10.6% | 10.8% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 28.6% | 26.0% | 28.1% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 30.6% | 31.1% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 57.7% | 57.7% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 36.7% | 37.3% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 12.3% | 11.4% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 19.6% | 20.8% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 13.0% | 12.2% | — |