Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 7.4 in
- RP forecast
- 7.4 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 7.4 in | 7.4 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 12.0 in | 12.0 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 93.3 mph | 93.9 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 13.2 in | 13.3 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 14.8 in | 15.0 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 89 | 97 | 98 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 93 | 94 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 100 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 106 | 106 | — |
| Zone rate | 50.4% | 49.2% | 49.0% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.9% | 28.3% | 28.9% | — |
| Whiff rate | 22.2% | 22.9% | 24.6% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 10.0% | 8.2% | 6.7% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 40.0% | 42.7% | 44.7% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 56.3% | 43.1% | 40.7% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.1% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 25.0% | 21.3% | 23.4% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 32.0% | 32.6% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 60.6% | 60.6% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 29.8% | 30.4% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 6.6% | 5.7% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.4% | 24.6% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 18.3% | 17.6% | — |