Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 3.3 in
- RP forecast
- 3.2 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 4.45 | 1.36 | 20.2% | 8.8% | 44.6% |
| RP | 3.99 | 1.32 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 46.6% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 3.3 in | 3.2 in | 3.3 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 13.6 in | 13.7 in | 13.6 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.6 mph | 95.2 mph | 94.6 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 6.5 in | 6.6 in | 6.5 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 15.4 in | 15.5 in | 15.4 in |
| Stuff+ | 91 | 97 | 99 | 97 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 97 | 99 | 97 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 98 | 99 | 98 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 102 | 102 | 102 |
| Zone rate | 46.8% | 48.0% | 47.8% | 48.0% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 26.6% | 28.0% | 28.6% | 28.0% |
| Whiff rate | 23.1% | 23.0% | 24.8% | 23.0% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% |
| Ground-ball rate | 43.8% | 44.6% | 46.6% | 44.6% |
| Hard-hit rate | 39.2% | 40.5% | 38.1% | 40.5% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp | 0.3 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 10.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 8.8% |
| Strikeout rate | 22.4% | 20.2% | 22.3% | 20.2% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 42.5% | 43.0% | 42.5% |
| All fastball usage | — | 46.4% | 46.4% | 46.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 30.3% | 30.8% | 30.3% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 12.1% | 11.2% | 12.1% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| First secondary usage | — | 18.0% | 19.2% | 18.0% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 14.8% | 14.0% | 14.8% |