Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 3.2 in
- RP forecast
- 3.2 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 3.2 in | 3.2 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 11.5 in | 11.6 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.6 mph | 95.2 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 6.0 in | 6.1 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 14.1 in | 14.3 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 115 | 105 | 106 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 106 | 107 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 108 | 109 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 99 | 99 | — |
| Zone rate | 44.5% | 47.0% | 46.8% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.4% | 28.7% | 29.3% | — |
| Whiff rate | 26.4% | 26.1% | 27.8% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 5.2% | 7.6% | 6.1% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 55.8% | 48.4% | 50.4% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.6% | 39.4% | 37.0% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.3% | 9.5% | 9.7% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 23.8% | 23.4% | 25.5% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 46.0% | 46.6% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 45.5% | 45.5% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 30.5% | 31.1% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 8.7% | 7.8% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 20.3% | 21.6% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 18.5% | 17.8% | — |