Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 12.8 in
- RP forecast
- 12.7 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 3.93 | 1.22 | 25.7% | 7.9% | 40.0% |
| RP | 3.47 | 1.18 | 27.8% | 8.2% | 42.0% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 12.8 in | 12.7 in | 12.8 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 13.9 in | 14.0 in | 13.9 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.6 mph | 95.2 mph | 94.6 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 10.8 in | 10.9 in | 10.8 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 11.2 in | 11.3 in | 11.2 in |
| Stuff+ | 110 | 103 | 104 | 103 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 104 | 105 | 104 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | 102 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 101 | 101 | 101 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 109 | 109 | 109 |
| Zone rate | 48.9% | 49.2% | 48.9% | 49.2% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 32.3% | 30.3% | 30.9% | 30.3% |
| Whiff rate | 27.8% | 27.0% | 28.8% | 27.0% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 7.9% |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.2% | 40.0% | 42.0% | 40.0% |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.8% | 39.8% | 37.4% | 39.8% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp | 0.5 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% |
| Strikeout rate | 27.9% | 25.7% | 27.8% | 25.7% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 30.8% | 31.3% | 30.8% |
| All fastball usage | — | 58.3% | 58.3% | 58.3% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 52.3% | 52.9% | 52.3% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 10.3% | 9.4% | 10.3% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| First secondary usage | — | 28.7% | 30.0% | 28.7% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 10.9% | 10.1% | 10.9% |