Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP · chosen
- 17.2 in
- RP forecast
- 17.1 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP · chosen | 3.73 | 1.23 | 25.5% | 8.1% | 50.5% |
| RP | 3.27 | 1.20 | 27.6% | 8.4% | 52.5% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 17.2 in | 17.1 in | 17.2 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 5.1 in | 5.2 in | 5.1 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 94.8 mph | 95.4 mph | 94.8 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 17.5 in | 17.6 in | 17.5 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 21.1 in | 21.3 in | 21.1 in |
| Stuff+ | 106 | 104 | 105 | 104 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 107 | 109 | 107 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | 102 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 107 | 108 | 107 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 102 | 102 | 102 |
| Zone rate | 47.4% | 48.5% | 48.3% | 48.5% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 28.0% | 28.6% | 29.2% | 28.6% |
| Whiff rate | 23.6% | 25.5% | 27.2% | 25.5% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% |
| Ground-ball rate | 45.9% | 50.5% | 52.5% | 50.5% |
| Hard-hit rate | 35.5% | 38.7% | 36.3% | 38.7% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp | 0.2 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.1% |
| Strikeout rate | 26.0% | 25.5% | 27.6% | 25.5% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 30.7% | 31.2% | 30.7% |
| All fastball usage | — | 61.4% | 61.4% | 61.4% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 33.3% | 33.9% | 33.3% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 18.4% | 19.7% | 18.4% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 15.7% | 14.9% | 15.7% |