Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 16.2 in
- RP forecast
- 16.1 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 16.2 in | 16.1 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 6.9 in | 6.9 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 95.1 mph | 95.6 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 1.5 in | 1.7 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 16.3 in | 16.5 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 91 | 96 | 98 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 93 | 95 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 99 | 100 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 89 | 90 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | — * | — * | — |
| Zone rate | 49.0% | 46.9% | 46.7% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 20.0% | 25.5% | 26.1% | — |
| Whiff rate | 33.3% | 28.9% | 30.7% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 25.0% | 11.6% | 10.0% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 75.0% | 56.7% | 58.7% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 62.5% | 46.0% | 43.6% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.6 pp | 0.6 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.3% | 10.7% | 11.0% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 25.0% | 20.2% | 22.3% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 50.3% | 50.9% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 42.2% | 42.2% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 30.4% | 31.0% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 7.6% | 6.7% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.2% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 45.6% | 46.9% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 9.3% | 8.5% | — |