Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 2.8 in
- RP forecast
- 2.8 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 2.8 in | 2.8 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 12.8 in | 12.9 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 90.5 mph | 91.1 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 7.2 in | 7.3 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 11.4 in | 11.5 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 93 | 97 | 99 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 96 | 98 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 95 | 95 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 105 | 106 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 98 | 98 | — |
| Zone rate | 49.8% | 49.7% | 49.5% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 26.1% | 28.5% | 29.1% | — |
| Whiff rate | 18.2% | 19.9% | 21.7% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 15.4% | 9.6% | 8.1% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 41.5% | 39.9% | 41.9% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 38.5% | 36.6% | 34.2% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.4 pp | 0.4 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 12.8% | 10.2% | 10.5% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 11.6% | 16.2% | 18.3% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 34.7% | 35.3% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 57.1% | 57.1% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 49.7% | 50.2% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 8.5% | 7.6% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.3% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 15.9% | 17.1% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 17.6% | 16.9% | — |