Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 3.2 in
- RP · chosen
- 3.1 in
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| Scenario | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP | 3.77 | 1.23 | 27.7% | 8.8% | 45.0% |
| RP · chosen | 3.31 | 1.20 | 29.8% | 9.1% | 47.0% |
| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 3.2 in | 3.1 in | 3.1 in |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.9 in | 16.9 in | 16.9 in |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 97.5 mph | 98.1 mph | 98.1 mph |
| First secondary movement | — | 15.2 in | 15.3 in | 15.3 in |
| Second secondary movement | — | 6.8 in | 6.9 in | 6.9 in |
| Stuff+ | 106 | 104 | 105 | 105 |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 103 | 104 | 104 |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 102 | 103 | 103 |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 107 | 108 | 108 |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 92 | 92 | 92 |
| Zone rate | 48.9% | 49.6% | 49.3% | 49.3% |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 33.0% | 30.0% | 30.6% | 30.6% |
| Whiff rate | 29.4% | 28.2% | 29.9% | 29.9% |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Ground-ball rate | 47.2% | 45.0% | 47.0% | 47.0% |
| Hard-hit rate | 41.2% | 42.4% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Strikeout rate | 31.6% | 27.7% | 29.8% | 29.8% |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 40.1% | 40.7% | 40.7% |
| All fastball usage | — | 57.2% | 57.2% | 57.2% |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 40.8% | 41.4% | 41.4% |
| Offspeed usage | — | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| First secondary usage | — | 23.6% | 24.9% | 24.9% |
| Second secondary usage | — | 16.2% | 15.4% | 15.4% |