Fastball horizontal break
- 2026 actual
- —
- SP forecast
- 5.8 in
- RP forecast
- 5.7 in
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| Component | 2026 actual | SP forecast | RP forecast | Chosen role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw stuff | ||||
| Fastball horizontal break | — | 5.8 in | 5.7 in | — |
| Fastball induced vertical break | — | 16.1 in | 16.2 in | — |
| Primary fastball velocity | — | 92.2 mph | 92.8 mph | — |
| First secondary movement | — | 16.2 in | 16.3 in | — |
| Second secondary movement | — | 12.3 in | 12.4 in | — |
| Stuff+ | 90 | 95 | 97 | — |
| Primary fastball Stuff+ | — | 92 | 94 | — |
| First secondary Stuff+ | — | 100 | 101 | — |
| Second secondary Stuff+ | — | 92 | 93 | — |
| Command | ||||
| PLoc+ | — | 96 | 96 | — |
| Zone rate | 46.1% | 46.8% | 46.6% | — |
| Hitter reaction | ||||
| Chase rate | 27.7% | 26.1% | 26.7% | — |
| Whiff rate | 20.4% | 21.1% | 22.9% | — |
| Contact | ||||
| Barrel rate | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | — |
| Ground-ball rate | 37.8% | 37.3% | 39.3% | — |
| Hard-hit rate | 35.1% | 37.8% | 35.4% | — |
| HR/FB above expected | — | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp | — |
| Results | ||||
| Walk rate | 11.3% | 10.3% | 10.6% | — |
| Strikeout rate | 14.6% | 16.3% | 18.4% | — |
| Usage | ||||
| Breaking-ball usage | — | 19.4% | 20.0% | — |
| All fastball usage | — | 53.2% | 53.2% | — |
| Primary fastball usage | — | 42.4% | 43.0% | — |
| Offspeed usage | — | 29.2% | 28.3% | — |
| Other pitch usage | — | 0.2% | 0.5% | — |
| First secondary usage | — | 26.5% | 27.7% | — |
| Second secondary usage | — | 10.7% | 10.0% | — |